The promotion race – How are we progressing?

Posted on January 16th, 2010 | 85 Comments |

Would be nice but...
Would be nice but...
Apologies as I’m a tad bored right now and had to do something, so what could be better than having a look at how things stand with regards to Newcastle United getting back to the Premier League at the first attempt?

If I said that back in August, I would probably have got laughed off the blog such was the state we were in, both on and off the pitch. Things aren’t much better now, but there certainly seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel given that we stand top of the league!

We have now played 24 games, with 22 remaining. We stand 2 points clear of 2nd placed Nottingham Forest with 2 games in hand and a superior goal difference, and 6 points clear of 3rd placed West Brom, a +1 on the goal difference ahead, although we have played the same amount of games. It’s looks as though it may well be a 3-way shoot out for the top 2 places, with our’s and West Brom’s quality and Forest’s fine run of form setting the three apart from chasing pack.

Next up for us is a home game against 3rd placed West Brom, a game which if we win will put us 9 points clear of 3rd place. The remainder of January and the month of February will be very important for us and should give us an idea if we are to go up automatically. I’ll discount FA Cup games (of which there is at least 1), so that makes our next 9 league games look like this:

Jan 18th – West Brom (h)
Jan 27th – Crystal Palace (h)
Jan30th – Leicester (a)
Feb 5th – Cardiff (h)
Feb 9th – Derby (a)
Feb 13th – Swansea (a)*
Feb 17th – Coventry (h)
Feb 20th – Preston (h)
Feb 27th – Watford (a)

* May be moved for Fa Cup 6th round.

So a tough run of games then, with not much time for a rest, but these are the types of fixture runs to be expected nowadays. Leaving a margin of error in these games, if we take 17 points from them – 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats – it would leave us with 68 points and 13 games to play.

I’ve been crunching some numbers, and from the past 5 seasons, the average points to finish 1st has been 92 points. This can be skewed however as it includes a 103 point total for Reading. On the other hand, it includes West Brom finishing 1st on a low 81 points. Take it down 1 place further for the 2nd automatic promotion place and the average works out at 85 points.

Now 85 points to me sounds like dodgy ground, for that reason we have to aim higher and keep on winning games and grinding results out. I have done this so it gives us some sort of target, something we can all look towards.

For me personally, winning the league would be nice, but ultimately it’s promotion we are after, and if we have to use 2nd place for that then it is fine by me! Besides, we’ll start sounding like our unwashed neighbours from the Wear with the “we won something more recent than you” jibes. Our Inter-Toto cup is far superior anyways…

Just to clarify, money is not an option in this division. There is no prize money if we do go back up as we are recieving the parachute payment and would recieve the lucrative Sky TV money for next season. Any money that we should have won will be distributed between teams left in the Championship, so there really is no financial gain in coming 1st or 2nd, the end result is the same!

All this could be irrelevant however as this is Newcastle United, and we are never more than 1 game away from the next crisis!

NUFCBlog Author: toonsy toonsy has written 643 articles on this blog.

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Comment on this post

85 Responses

  1. I had a look at that last week toonsy – and I think 90 points will be needed to guarantee promotion. I cant see three teams getting above 90.

  2. I certainly think it will be higher than the average 85 points to get 2nd. Even if it isn’t, we should be aiming for the maximum anyway. If I remember I’ll revisit this in March and have another look and assess where we are then.

  4. Numbers !
    What about the entertainment the agony of defeat, or elation following a win, is `nt that what it`s about ?
    and you come on here and give us numbers !

  8. We should win this league easy, if we don’t lose any of our players, and maybe add a few. Although we won’t get quality players in this division.

  10. workyticket says:
    January 16, 2010 at 10:16 pm
    Will Hughton beat Keegan’s 96 points in 1992/3?
    <<< no worky its the 1st time this season iam getting worryed not because the scabs have won but because our loan players are due back and a cannit see the fat c@nt gettin replacements in

  14. CH – has been handed a 25m tranfer kitty for this window – but because he’s a nobody he can’t get anyone interested in talking to him never mind signing for him – sad but true.

  16. worky iam gonna ignore my stalker in moondust because i dont want too ruein the blog ile just call him on ed judas harrisons blog

  18. jay jay i think fatty is gonna fck it up agen hes like an ariston he goes on and on and on and on fcking things up

  19. I hope not, but you never know with cashley. still think we have enough quality to get out of this league though batty.

  20. nice to see the bent nosed geordie reject is doing a fantastic job for the shithouses down the road……fingers crossed we can meet on the stairs at the end of the season..that would be nice.

  22. I too am worried about the squad. As we stand the squad is three lighter than at the start of the season and on Tuesday morning will be four lighter.

    We had an anerexic squad as it was, but now it’s looking on it’s death bed.

  23. batty , that quick tongue of yours really hurts some times….but batty we’ve still got a good future together….i luv you bro xxxx

  25. It was very upsetting watching the faces of all those poor little Mackems on MOTD. It must have been awful travelling all that way just to get totally crucified like that. The poor things.

  26. Lads I just hope that Ma thinks like me that not getting promoted is not an options. So I dont think he will be planning on lossing any players. Killgallon I dont think was an option as he wouldn’t come to warm our bench. Beckford I hope we dont get so apart from them 2 who else is there that will be worth a place if and when we get promoted.
    But then im trying to be optimistic :)

  28. look what the cat’s dragged in – spew 79 , where’s your mate shandy boy ? if you wernt sick of living after 1/2 an hour in their company you’d be contemplating suiside – pass me that noose.

  31. I’m bothered that we haven’t really had any injuries yet, so there are sure to be just round the corner.

    More importantly what happens when these players get tired, lose form or get injured?

    We need to have the same amount of players has we had on 1st Jan, whether loans or permanant it really doesn’t matter.

  35. Roy Cropper says:
    January 16, 2010 at 11:06 pm
    oh look it’s spew 79.

    he’s got me doubled up yet again with his funny posts

    Must run in the family, ya husband also doubles up – As a wife…

  36. spew – stick to what you do best – ripping off the poor unfortunates in this world – with coppers for their gold.

  37. We got three full time blogs now, this one, Doocey and Ed.
    This Town aint big enough for those kinda numbers, somebody`s gotta fall by the wayside.
    Then again, perhaps we could have certain blogs representing the pro Ashley crowd, another pro NUST and a neutral blog where both can insult each other.
    Or one for people with serious shit they want off their chest, another dealing strictly with bean counting and money, for all the accountants and maybe one about football.

  49. hi , iv’e been under ground for a while but i needed to return to make an APPEAL – a few years ago my friends and me organizied a sunday morning boys club at the thomis wilson club naming it the jolly boys. now this turned out to be very succseful and hugly profitable so we apionted one the trust worthy member of staff as our treasurer her name being HEATHER MILLS and believe it or not but she ran off with our kitty – a fair sum i might ad and to this day weve never seen sight or sound of her.

    now its come to my attention she is plying her trade on skating around on ice itv on sunday nights.

    this might sound petty but to my friends , myself and many others we think she should be removed from our screens at the earlyist oportunity for the reasons stated above. so now back to the appeal , if you the readers could spare the time and a couple of pence to registor your vote against her this coming sunday it would be much appriciated. as its obvios she needs to be taken down a peg or two before some other innocents could well be taken in by this horrible women.

    please excuse the speling as i suffer from anorexia.

    thank yuo for your time.

  51. @Toonsy: i think u miss out our game in hand with reading on 23rd Feb????

    Feb ‘10

    Fri. 5 19:45 UK Newcastle United v Cardiff City
    Tue. 9 19:45 UK Derby County v Newcastle United
    Sat. 13 15:00 UK Swansea City v Newcastle United
    Wed. 17 19:45 UK Newcastle United v Coventry City
    Sat. 20 15:00 UK Newcastle United v Preston North End
    Tues.23 20:00 UK Reading v Newcastle.
    Sat. 27 15:00 UK Watford v Newcastle United

    Whoa,We have 7 fixtures in the month of February.
    If we manage to get all the 21points,i reckon we will win promotion~~~~^,^

  52. Instead of looking at an amount of points that SHOULD get us up, maybe we should go game by game and make sure we can keep netting for the newxt few weeks. A long way to go this season.

  53. Gordon, I done this more to give a general gist of how many points have been enough in the past so to give and indication of what we need to do. I did say above that “we have to aim higher and keep on winning games and grinding results out”.

  55. If we win all our games in Feb, there’ll be no danger of us not getting promoted. It will be a done deal.

    However, with so many games in one month with a squad as things stand likely to be smaller than at the start of the transfer window we are going to suffer through tiredness ect…

    Just hope this isn’t our bad month as we could be way back in 3rd come March.

  56. The newspapers are more interested in Big Brother than Newcastle United now. And we’ve got what this club always needed, players who really want to play for it.”

    great read that story, people can moan and bash Ashley with the narrow minded agendas, but for me, the one thing i liked about the idea of relegation is what we are seeing on the pitch, committed players playing for each other and the club. Havnt seen in it years!
    i for one am really enjoying the season (just not the football at times :-D)

  57. alex reid the next james bond?,alex reid the next elephant man.
    hang on that,s a total insult to john merrick,sorry john.

  59. http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/columnists/neil-farrington/2010/01/17/passion-alone-is-just-not-enough-79310-25616628/

    There seems to be conflciting opinions as to whether NUST are aiming to buy out the club in total or buy a share of the club. First of all can’t see Ashley selling a share to them in a million years, secondly the cash raised by NUST is based on providing an annual 2% return on investment to all those who bought into the scheme. How could that work if Ashley still owned the majority share of the club?

  62. Deb @ 58,

    That article is apile of rubbish, surely?

    £30K a week? That’s PL wages to a lot of PL clubs. Average wage in Championship is about £15k a week.

    I cannot see why the players we’ve been linked with would want more than £30k oer week.

  63. Some talk about us being after Jack Wilshere of Arsenal for loan. Now he sounds much more what we need – not for back-up either – but can’t see us getting him.

  64. magpie6699 says:
    January 17, 2010 at 12:11 pm

    I’m sure I heard Wenger recently say he wanted Wiltshire to go and play for a team who pass and move well and try and play like Arsenal.

    That would rule us out totally unfortunately.

    He also wants him to play in the PL.

  65. Stuart and geordiedeb,
    you don’t think that what Hughton was told was that he could not increase our TOTAL wage bill by £30K for all signings?

  66. steven baldwin the next pope! ! What a pillock he is! And alex reid is getting sucked in by him! Absolute idiots. . Jordan must be cringing at reids performance.

  67. magpie6699 – Realistically Hughton shouldn’t have a say in the wages. He may have an idea of what it would to sign a player and how much a week, but the rest is for the board and agents to sort out.

  68. Stuart79 says:
    January 17, 2010 at 12:05 pm

    “Average wage in Championship is about £15k a week.”

    Stuart, £15 thousand a week is a fortune in the Championship. The gulf between it and the Premiership is huge now.

  70. Stuart 79

    It could well be a pile of rubbish, who knows. Maybe it’s relative looking at the wages that a lot of our team are still on even those lower down the pecking order.
    I agree though, can’t see Ashley stumping up £30k a week unless it was life or death, but again who knows?

  71. Exactly Worky,

    Burnely had the lowest average wage last season and their best player was on £12k per week.

    There are a few teams in the Championship who have been in the PL so still have reletively high wages for the division.

    I think it is more likely Hughton has been told he cannot add £30k per week on to the wage bill.

  72. Ian Curtiss, just be thankfull it wasn’t your money she ran off with, the loss of a cat is no big deal. See previous blog to see how I feel about the nasty little bird killers.

  73. Perhaps we could persuade Burnley to sell us Chris Eagles, they are coming down anyway and we could more than match the his wages, how about a straight swap for Butt.

  74. Stuart79 says:
    January 17, 2010 at 12:28 pm

    “There are a few teams in the Championship who have been in the PL so still have reletively high wages for the division.”

    That’s true, Stuart, certainly this season anyway. There’s Newcastle, Smoggies and WBA who are way ahead, then teams like Cardiff and Notts Forest etc. Then there’s a big rump of teams going to squads like Peterborough and Scunthorpe, where alot of the players can be paid the same in a year that the biggest Premiership players get in a week.

  76. TROJAN 69 says:
    January 17, 2010 at 12:20 pm
    aye,ashley,s that tight he wakes up in the middle of the neet to see if he,s lost any sleep.
    <<< lol

  77. Yeah also the likes of Sheff Utd, Crystal Palace, Reading, Derby, Watford and to a degree Coventry. All PL clubs in the recent past and it’s no coincidence that their all in a bot of trouble financially.

    The likes of Ipswich have been paying big wages too this season.

    I don’t think the wages are too low in the Championship – Obviosuly compared to the PL they are though.

  78. Just as a point of interest in the Blog war, Eds last comment was 12-03 last night and workys was 10-19. Whats happened to all of the night owls?

  84. Ed. is churning out blogs by the minute, Doocey is running a close second, with Workeys gang dropping to third.
    Ed., being on a different time zone is catching the late show.
    There`s confusion among the posters, jumping from one site to the other, too much information, not enough time to respond, somethings gotta give………Aaaaaagghhhh !