How much will Newcastle have to improve to avoid relegation?
Posted on January 24th, 2022 | 30 Comments |
Despite all the tales of future world class signings, future Champions League competition and all the rest, it has been a frankly awful season for Newcastle United so far which has seen them rooted within the bottom three. A nightmare December run of games against Leicester, Liverpool, Manchester City and finally, Manchester United certainly didn’t help, but as the games get ever more crucial, what lies in store in the next few games for Newcastle and our basement rivals in the race for survival?
Whilst the things should get easier for the Magpies after a dreadful December, a point against Watford and a win against Leeds has made for a better January, though the break has robbed the Magpies of the chance to grab another 3 points in January, as it might have made the club look more secure to any transfer targets as the transfer window closes. The series of more realistic fixtures continues though with an Everton in transition after the sacking of Rafa Benitez, followed by Aston Villa, West Ham and Brentford.
One bad thing is that both teams beneath us have games in hand, one for Watford and three for Burnley, though Toon fans can cling to the hope that two of those three Burnley games are against Manchester United and Liverpool and the recent form of both teams has been even more dire than Newcastle’s. Watford have only won one point in their last five games, and Burnley, two.
On the other hand, we do have one game in hand over the team above us, Norwich, though they have won their last two games. Looking at the odds via OlyBet Sports, despite their two wins, Norwich are still the favourites for the drop, followed by Watford and Burnley, with the Magpies tipped to just escape the drop as things stand.
One thing that’s for sure is that things are still unsure. Newcastle will have to be more than twice as good as they have been so far, or to put it another way, they will have to win more than double the amount of points per game than they have so far to get over those magical 40 points everyone who supports a struggling club talks about at the end of a season. If we carry on the way we are, we will get 27. This means that we will have to play like a mid table side who would normally expect to win 55 points in a season.
In recent years, Newcastle have often done better in the second half of seasons, or the last 17 games as it is now. Looking back, we gained 23 points in the last 17 games last season, only 19 in 2019-20, but 27 in 2018-19 and finally, 25 points in our return to the Premier League in 2018-19 so considering that we should have a slightly better squad than we did before, it is highly achievable but of course, nothing is ever predictable at St James’ Park!
Chuck, we’re on a new ‘blog now but I read your last comment. I will reply later as I have to fly out the door now.