How Alan Pardew’s return to route one is saving Newcastle United’s season
Posted on November 3rd, 2014 | 155 Comments |
You don’t even have to be a Newcastle United fan to notice that Alan Pardew and Newcastle United have done very well in their last four games, all wins with three against top sides Tottenham, Manchester City and Liverpool.
Credit where credit is due, Pardew and the team have gone some way at least to answering their critics in terms of results after a dismal start to the season. However, in studying the stats there is one fact which might cause a dilemma for some fans who advocate that Newcastle United should adopt a more passing style like the top clubs. The fact is that Pardew’s lighting fast turn of fortune rests on the exact opposite. What I mean is that after an effort to play like a modern passing side, an effort which brought him no wins in his first eight Premier League games, the Silver Fox has now found salvation through abruptly returning to his ‘route one’ roots, as you will be able to see in the evidence below.
First, to give some perspective, I will include the long ball percentage scale I devised a few years ago when I wrote a series of pieces revealing and monitoring Pardew’s long ball tactics at Newcastle. The references might be a little out of date as this was from the time when David Moyes was the manager of Everton and Tony Pulis was at Stoke.
The NUFC Blog long ball scale ©™
07% – 12% – Arsene Wenger. A tippy-tappy passing side who more or less completely reject the long ball game.
12% – 15% – David Moyes. A mixed side who are somewhere in the middle.
15% – 25% – Tony Pulis and Fat Sam on a mortar firing range. A full on long ball side who positively embrace “route one” football.
Returning to look for signs of Newcastle United’s route one football after visual evidence from watching the Leicester and Tottenham games, it seems that this season Pardew has indeed had a route one relapse. Though statistics have shown that it is not a formula for long term, sustained success, there is no doubt it has worked so far in pulling the Magpies out of their recent early season crisis.
Pardew is not the only one either. Another manager who has been punching above his considerable weight using long balls so far is West Ham’s ‘Fat’ Sam Allardyce. In one of his Premier League games this season he even went way beyond the limits of my long ball scale (25%), with a huge 29.3% of West Ham’s passes against Manchester City being long balls. At the other extreme, Arsenal had a figure of only 3.6% long balls against Hull this season, which is one of the lowest I’ve ever seen.
Below I have looked at the percentage figures for long balls in the League games of Newcastle United and their opponents this season so far. Long balls are defined as over 25 yards and the stats are from OPTA. Measuring the percentage of long balls played over a few games gives the far more accurate picture of how direct a team is than merely counting the amount of long passes. This is because long ball teams pass the ball far less, hence a more passing side might make the same amount, or even more long passes than a ‘long ball’ side. However, their long passes will probably be around 7-12% of their total passes whereas a long ball side’s percentage will probably be somewhere between 15-25% on average.
Now as a Magpies fan, I welcome the recent results, not to mention the rise of the bairns as much as anyone. However it is what it is. The team have done it with old Stoke style blood and guts direct football rather than elegant one touch short passing. As I’ve already mentioned, this might create a dilemma for those who espouse that Newcastle should join the big sides, and even clubs like Swansea and Southampton in playing a shorter passing style. Of course though, the philosophy which usually dominates when a team is winning for obvious reasons is ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it,’ so things will almost certainly continue as they are. For now let’s just ride the wave until it crashes again.
A snapshot of Pardew’s long balls | |||
Newcastle Utd vs Man City | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Newcastle Utd | 460 | 57 | 12.4% |
Man City | 593 | 49 | 8.1% |
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Utd | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Aston Villa | 348 | 55 | 15.8% |
Newcastle Utd | 535 | 63 | 11.8% |
Newcastle Utd vs Crystal Palace | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Newcastle Utd | 477 | 41 | 8.6% |
Crystal Palace | 268 | 58 | 21.6% |
Southampton vs Newcastle Utd | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Southampton | 552 | 68 | 12.3% |
Newcastle Utd | 544 | 58 | 10.7% |
Newcastle Utd vs Hull City | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Newcastle Utd | 577 | 54 | 9.4% |
Hull City | 342 | 62 | 18.1% |
Stoke City vs Newcastle Utd | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Stoke City | 344 | 55 | 16% |
Newcastle Utd | 422 | 59 | 14% |
Swansea City vs Newcastle Utd | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Swansea City | 627 | 59 | 9.4% |
Newcastle Utd | 347 | 64 | 18.4% |
Newcastle Utd vs Leicester City | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Newcastle Utd | 379 | 76 | 20.1% |
Leicester City | 374 | 73 | 19.5% |
Tottenham vs Newcastle Utd | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Tottenham | 556 | 75 | 13.5% |
Newcastle Utd | 277 | 67 | 24.2% |
Newcastle Utd vs Liverpool | |||
Team | Pss | LBs | LB% |
Newcastle Utd | 307 | 19.5% | |
Liverpool | 582 | 9.1% | |
Pss – Passes LBs – Long Balls, LB% – Long Ball Percentage. |
Sure there’s a correlation between winning and losing, in regard to the style of football played.
But then following our time stuck with this Neanderthal playing a direct style of football, last seen in the eighties, interspaced with short periods of attempting to introduce more modern lineups like a 4-2-3-1, it became obvious he had no clue and neither did those he penciled in for those particular games.
Following an initial start to the season, which was to say the least uninspiring, collecting mostly losses and draws, there came a last desperate attempt, a return to direct football.
The only real tactical style understood by this loser, we came away with wins over Citeh, Pool and Spurs, who are by no means bad sides.
Plus there was a certain amount of luck involved and the fact that those teams mentioned are not exactly living up to expectations this season, makes one wonder what’s going on within the league.
Some claim, it has to do with the improvement of PL sides in general, following the enormous windfall of TV revenues received.
However there’s really no reflection of that, when one measures the results of PL sides against continental clubs, in the two big European cups, where the top PL sides are presently struggling.
One thing for sure is, I have yet to watch a game that really had my full attention,
There’s very little flair or entertainment value, the game becoming cynical and the points essential, with Jose Mourinho, leading the way along with Citeh, BSA’s W/Ham and others.
Unfortunately there are more sides than NUFC playing, this cynical style, such has been the affect of money on the EPL, instead of introducing the worlds best players, to entertain us, we have been treated to something not unlike the catenaccio system of “Seria A” years ago, which resulted on games so boring, the fans staying away in droves.
Pardewed is a term fairly commonly used by NUFC fans, but it’s also happening in more clubs than not, such are the pressures on clubs and managers throughout the PL.
In which case the present revenues received could be more detrimental than not, as clubs regardless of success are no wealthier, everyone having to spend in order to stay in place, if they want to belong to the EPL and collect.
Of course most of this has yet to be understood by fans, but it certainly hasn’t escaped the present managers, who for the most part are under extreme pressure to succeed.
Play an entertaining style of football ?
Sorry we are playing for money and it’s points that count, regardless of the style of play.