Mr.Average: What is Alan Pardew’s average season performance?

Posted on December 13th, 2013 | 20 Comments |

The Silver Fox: OK, but no fist pump.
The Silver Fox: OK, but no fist pump.
The 9th December marked the third anniversary of Alan Pardew’s appointment as Newcastle United manager, with the 11th being the third anniversary of his first game in charge, a 3-1 victory over Kenny Dalglish’s Liverpool.

So, bearing that in mind, I thought I would look at Pardew’s 113 Premier League games, crunch some numbers and see what we can learn.

As well as the results, one other thing I have used to assess Pardew’s performance is Transfermarkt’s table of Premier League clubs ranked by the value of their squads. I have been consulting this for quite a few years now, and when Newcastle United were first promoted from the Championship under Pardew’s predecessor, Chris Hughton, Newcastle had the 12th most valuable squad, worth around £90 million like Aston Villa or West Bromwich Albion today. However, some astute signings whose value increased such as Hatem Ben Arfa and Chieck Tiote took this up to around ninth by the time by the time Hughton was replaced by Pardew. With a further influx of cut price talent, mostly from France, they soon rose a couple of places higher to seventh. Since then Newcastle have slipped back to eighth behind Everton, who have been the closest side to Newcastle United squad wise over the last few seasons. Basically over that period there has been a top six of Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham. After that there is something of a gap until you find Everton and Newcastle. Then, after another fairly large gap there is the rest.

Bearing all the above in mind, the benchmark for Pardew with the tools at his disposal should be fighting it out with Everton for the last ticket to the Europa League in seventh (unless someone outside the top seven wins a cup competition).

Moving on to examine how Pardew has performed against this benchmark, below you can see a table with the row at the top showing Pardew’s complete 113 game Premier League record at Newcastle United. Below that, I have used the same figures to calculate an average Pardew 38 game season.

3 years of Pardew in the Premier League.
Pardew’s complete Premier League record.
Season Pos P W D L F A GD Pts Win%
2010-14 * 113 44 27 42 153 172 -19 159 38.94
Average Pardew Premier League season.
Season Pos P W D L F A GD Pts Win%
* 8th 38 14.8 9.1 14.1 51 58 -7 53.5 38.94

So there you have it.

Going with the players he’s had at his disposal, Pardew should have finished around ninth or tenth at the end of his first (half) season in 2011, which is where they were when he took over from Chris Hughton. In this he slightly underperformed, finishing twelfth at the end.

However, he did slightly overperform the season after. Top six teams Chelsea and Liverpool both had disappointing league seasons, leaving Newcastle to snatch fifth place when they should have been around seventh by that stage.

Next season was a car crash for Pardew however as he flirted with relegation, finishing 16th when he should have around seventh once again. Funnily enough though, this didn’t throw Pardew off the mean that much more than finishing only two places higher than he should have the season before.

As you can see above, if you take the results of all of Pardew’s 113 Premier League games and condense them down into a 38 game season, Pardew would have come eighth in the last three seasons (all behind Everton in seventh) with 53.5 points. In his two full seasons he got 11.5 points more than that mean figure to finish fifth, and 12.5 points less to finish 16th the following season.

So, in conclusion, the Silver Fox’s overall performance has been about average over the three years, but way too inconsistent in his two full seasons so far. After all, a team with the strength of Newcastle should never at serious risk of relegation, whatever Pardew’s excuses were at the time.

For now though, the ship has been been stabilised and we are just about where we should be.


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NUFCBlog Author: workyticket workyticket has written 1093 articles on this blog.

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20 Responses

  1. First thing you notice is the Goals For and Against. Pardwho’s never been one to take the opposition by the scruff of the neck and shag them until they’re cross eyed :)

    Which, given the group of players at his disposal right now, is somewhat baffling ? Ever the “container”, maybe I should reame him Tupperware ?

  2. Pardew managed at West Ham and Southampton who both had/have great youff systems. You would have thought that Pardew might have implemented some of their policies for us. Is he just the first team coach?

    He also said this week that he was sacked “unfairly” by Southampton. Is that true? In the interview he was also touting the skills of Lalana, Rodreguez etc. and taking a bit of credit. Maybe he deserves credit, I don’t know, but why didn’t we go and buy them a couple of years ago. They couldn’t have cost that much and their wages would be less that established French internationals. He must have no say in transfers, except I think Obertan was his choice.

  3. Rodriguez was bought from Burnley GS but some of the others were there when he was in charge. However I very much doubt that Pardwho had any influence over the development of Chamberlain, Lallana or Ward Prowse etc as the Academy at Southampton is pretty autonomous.

    As for his purchases “As well as Rickie Lambert, Pardew was given the funds to complete a string of other signings to rebuild the squad including: Dean Hammond [undisclosed], Radhi Jaïdi [free], Graeme Murty [free], Dan Harding [free], David Connolly [free], Michail Antonio [loan], Papa Waigo [loan], Lee Barnard [undisclosed], José Fonte [£1.2M], Danny Seaborne [undisclosed], Jon Otsemobor [free] and Jason Puncheon, meaning that by the end of the January transfer window, Southampton had spent over £3 million on players, a significantly larger amount than any other League One club”

  4. I just looked up Pardew’s wiki and it does look like Southampton sacked him for things other than managerial performance. I never give him the benefit of the doubt anymore because of his patter.

    I think Worky’s assessment is pretty much correct, although the stats don’t really show some of the hidings we took and the fact that we have only played a few really good games during his tenure.

    I think the transfer business we did in January was exceptional and with the Frenchies now settled in we should be about where we are. What I hate is watching our games and almost always feeling we have so much more to offer. A couple of 3-0 wins with us absolutely dominating the opposition would be a good Christmas present and make me trust Pardew a bit more.

  5. Worky

    I attempted to read your piece above, but on realizing it concerned statistics, immedately switched off.

    Look if you were talking baseball, ok!, where they are a fundimental part of the game.

    But football is a simple game, where the only statistics i care about are contained in the full report in the league table, well add top goalscorers perhaps.

    And thats all the information i need.

    I recall the introduction of half time stats on tv, where the listed meaningless nonsense, number of cards, possession, etc., ffs one side could be totally outplaying the other, but statistcally the worst of the two.

    Plus i dont have to read a player or managers stats to know how good they are.

    I believe as far as association football is concerned to
    KISS, as it’s a simple game and certainly delivering statistics does little to enhance it’s entertainment value.

    Nowt personal, just ranting about the invasion of US style statistics, where they are not really needed.

    Leave that to the clubs statisticians, who also can let you know how many blades of grass certain players covered and at what speed, no thanks, i’m just watching to be entertained by a good game of football, which i already understand.

  6. I think many fans look at Southampton, as a small club on the south coast that used to be a decent side and are now, punching above their weight.

    Well the fact is it has a wealthy owner, though a fairly small stadium, who has splashed out on some quite expensive signings lately.

    Surprising some of the PL’s fixture clubs and at present are sitting one spot below us in the table.

    They are also a very well run side and it’s obvious their owner is more astute than Ashley, especially in his choice of hiring and firing managers.

    To-morrows game will hopefully be entertaining and will be interesting from a tactical viewpoint.

    I’m guessing Pardew will employ a 4-4-2, if not in name then cetainly in style.

    As for The Saints, one can expect a fast and furious first half, where they will be relentless in their persuit of the ball.

    Hopefully we have been practising a major flaw in our approach, of poor retention and we can force them to chase and tire.
    I suppose we have nowt to fear, having that great tactician Pardeux at the helm, lets see?

  7. If it’s statistics that matter, then it’s interesting to note we have the best run of any club in the PL over the last six games and are presently seperated from the top side by nine points, with some fairly decent future matchups.
    Whereas the sides above us, the Liverpool’s, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and Citeh have games against oneanother, where some will drop points.
    Its not inconceivable, that we could go into the new year, in close competition, with those sides who are presently above us.
    Not likely, like, but not inconceivable.

  8. Chuck: you never know which Pardew will turn up, that’s what is so frustrating about him. Will it be the Swansea Pardew or the Man U Pardew?

    What I have said before is that he hits on a settled team and actually does quite well in terms of results if not always performances. When he doesn’t out-think himself we have a decent shot of getting a result.

    Of course, being Pardew, we might get a hammering now and again. He has also come out and basically (if not explicitly) said he doesn’t want us to be hoofball anymore.

    He will still pick Shola ahead of Ben Arfa and Williamson ahead of MBiwa. Just wait and see.

    I would like to see Obertan off the bench and Marveaux on it, just to take away Pardew’s choice of throwing Obertan on. He has shown nothing to say he deserves a place ahead of Sammy, or even our loaned out winger Ferguson.

  9. Chuck @10: I know you never read what I say, but I talked with AndyMac about that yesterday. We also discussed Southamptom being bottom of the form table.

  10. Alan Pardew is Mr Average eh?

    Speaking of form, Well he is definitely a lump of something…

    What the stats do show, Is he is slightly below par, And the goals against column is shocking!

    Even if he is average, Is that good enough for a Football Club like Newcastle United?

    I see there are a lot of people diving on his d**k again, After a few results, Unbelievable!

    I know it is a results business, But look at some of the luck he has had in the games he has won.
    Played off the park in a lot of them, And we haven’t really improved our overall standard, Under his stewardship.
    Pardew still out for me, As i think there are managers out there, Who could get another 15 to 20% out of our squad.

    I wouldn’t put it past him to go from “Hero To Zero”, And make a monumental cock up of the Southampton match.
    He will probably now think he is Bill Shankly, And end up looking more like Will Plankley!

  11. chuck says:
    December 13, 2013 at 6:49 pm


    “I attempted to read your piece above, but on realizing it concerned statistics, immedately switched off.”

    Staistics can be good Chuck. Most deluded Geordies had fooled themselves into believing that Alan Pardew’s BS that he was trying to bring entertaining football to Newcastle United. When I tried to point out otherwise I was told I was stupid, a Mackem, I should get behind the team etc until I used statistics to prove that he was just another route one merchant. It also put pressure on Pardew to at least try to move away from such awful tactics.

    If it wasn’t for my blogs on stats and finances which you hate so much, no one would have have realised that Newcastle United’s commercial revenue was only half of what of what it should be, that the stadium renaming was certain to fail, that Wonga payed fuck all for it and lots of other things too.

    It takes me fucking hours poring through stats, balance sheets and all kinds of stuff, everyone just steals it and I get fuck all out of it and then I get told they are useless and not really needed. I really can’t be bothered with this shit anymore.

  12. Yeah just nick the stuff from EPL index in future WT :)

    Todays game is a great opportunity for the Special Needs One to play a Cabaye less team and see how well it shapes up. Most seem to think its a straight swap between Dreamboat and Anita but they’re not exactly like for like players and our “creativity”, such as it is, could suffer as a result. Maybe its time for HBA to step up and answer the call for some creative flair ?

    Pardwho’s struggled in the past to get the best out of wor Hatam (still dont know why he calls him that ???) but this is a golden opportunity for the grey haired numpty to unlock the team from the shackles of containment football and go for the jugular.

    Yeah I know it aint gonna happen :(

  13. AndyMac First thing you notice is the Goals For and Against. Pardwho’s never been one to take the opposition by the scruff of the neck and shag them until they’re cross eyed

    Haha Class…I would pay twice to watch that sorta Match :lol:

  14. EMO summarising on BT Sport.

    “Walcott’s shot which gave Pantilimon no chance”

    only seconds later

    “Hmmm Pantilimon should have saved that” :lol:

    Once a tw@t always a………

  15. If it wasn’t for the stats, No one would have cottoned on to the fact that Pardew was the “Long Ball Conman”, Stewart Robson said he was!
    Despite his accusations against Allardyce’s West Ham being of that ilk, He was one of the Leagues worst offenders in punting it long!

    Glass Houses Alan!