It 6/6 for Newcastle – can the form last for the run-in?
Posted on April 23rd, 2012 | 62 Comments |
Saturday’s win against Stoke made it six wins on the trot and it saw us leap into 4th place, ahead of a Spurs side that seems to be going through an extremely rough spell.
It’s ours to lose, as they say. But we have a fairly tough last four games compared to most of the teams around us, so I thought I’d look at the run-ins of us and the various teams around us to see how things might affect us.
For us it’s:
Wigan – Away
Chelsea – Away
Man City – Home
Everton – Away
Hmm, I’m not keen on the fact that three of our four remaining fixtures are away and all of them could pose problems. Wigan will be fighting to avoid relegation, which could make this a tricky fixture, but out of all the remaining games I’d suggest this is the most likely to net us all three points. Chelsea away will be extremely tough as they’ll fancy their chances of a good finish too, although their Champions League involvement might serve as a distraction to them and give us a chance of taking a point at Stamford Bridge.
Next is a visit from Man City who – depending on what happens in next weekend’s Manchester derby – could still be in with a fair shout of the title. We’re at home though and I reckon that if our form against them is anything like it has been recently, we’ll at least get a draw. The final match against Everton is no walk in the Goodison Park for us either. Everton have done their usual thing of finding some form late in the season and their comeback against Man Utd on the weekend showed what they’re capable of.
At a guess I’d say we’ll get 3 points against Wigan and at least 2 points from the other three games – that’s my most pessimistic view, so that’s 5/12 for the run-in. With my optimistic hat on, I reckon we could beat Man City at home, Everton away and get a point at Stamford Bridge, which would mean 10/12 for the final four games. Maybe the truth will be somewhere in the middle of both those views and we’ll end up with 7 or 8 more points.
Spurs have the following fixtures remaining:
Blackburn – Home
Bolton – Away
Villa – Away
Fulham – Home
If we were talking about the Spurs that hammered us 5-0, I’d have said they’d make a clean sweep of those games and take 12/12 points, but the Spurs of late makes them unpredictable. I do, as it happens, think that ‘Arry will have read them the riot act after their defeat to QPR and that they’ll improve a bit for the final four games. I reckon they’re good for 8-10 points from their run-in.
Chelsea‘s run-in looks like this:
QPR – Home
Newcastle – Home
Liverpool – Away
Blackburn – Home
But they’ve also got:
Barcelona – Away
Liverpool – Wembley
That all makes for a fairly heavy fixture list, which is to our benefit. I still can’t see them dropping too many points from their run-in though. I think Liverpool might hold them to a draw and if we’re lucky so might we, but I think they’ll dispatch QPR and Blackburn without too much trouble. So I reckon it’s 8-10 points from their last four games.
Arsenal aren’t safe from being overtaken yet either. They’re 3 points ahead of us but only have 3 games left:
Stoke – Away
Norwich – Home
West Brom – Away
They should get 9 points from their last three games and make certain of 3rd place but their away form has been patchy and I reckon they could drop points against Stoke and/or West Brom, so I think they’ll get 4-6 from their remaining games.
So, taking my pessimistic view of all the games (for all teams), we would end up 5th. Taking my optimistic view of all the games (for all teams) we’d end up 4th.
Either way, it’s going to be tight. I would suggest we have the toughest run-in of all the teams in terms of Premier League opposition, although it has to be conceded that Chelsea’s run-in is tough in terms of the number of games they have to play. We’re the ‘in form’ team of those around us and I think we have a chance of beating any opposition if that form continues but our form will certainly be tested in those last three fixtures.
If truth be told, I’m just pleased that we’re in the mix challenging for a Champions League place at this stage of the season, which has far exceeded the expectations I had at the start of the season. I’d still be happy enough with a Europa League place, but the Champions League is within our grasp and it’s hard not to get excited about the prospect of it.
What do you think?
NUFCBlog Author: Hugh de Payen
I'm a baby-boomer of the punk rock persuasion, currently exiled in Somerset for crimes committed in a previous life where locals keep trying to poison me with something called 'scrumpy'. Hates sprouts, coat-hangers, Cilla Black, ornaments, Steven Seagull movies and 50 Cent (he's not worth 10).
Hugh de Payen has written 634 articles on this blog.
Just wanted to say how great the blog is. I live in London and thus keeps me I’m touch with the the toon.