How attractive is Newcastle United for a takeover?

Posted on October 3rd, 2011 | 65 Comments |

More cash for the club?
More cash for the club?
In my previous blog “The Lesser of Two Evils” many people commented that Mike Ashley has no commitment to NUFC and will sell up as soon as he gets the right offer.

The question that has to be asked then, is, “How attractive is Newcastle United for a takeover?”

If you imagine yourself as a potential investor of NUFC you have to admit that it does look an attractive business move. A huge loyal fan base, who despite their misgivings of the current ownership are relatively content at the moment. All the club debt is out in the open, in a manageable way and is a relatively small given the revenue of the club. The team is playing well and we are flying high in the leagues and cup competitions, if we had beaten West Brom last season we would have only been a few places short of Europe.

Once that debt is cleared (hopefully in a few years) provided we continue to reside in the Premier League we could prove to be quite profitable on a long term investment.

The relegation was fantastic for a new potential owner; all the dead wood and high earners are almost out of Tyneside (Alan Smith I’m looking at you) with a new sensible wage structure and transfer policy in place. I’d argue that maybe another £20 million in transfer fees to get us a new Striker and Right Back / Centre Back would set the team up for a few years; our squad is not in need of a complete overhaul as we have a relatively young squad.

Plus any new owner would immediately walk into a positive atmosphere after being the person who removed Ashley’s reign of terror.

On the other side of the coin, if we do start to receive bids for the club (Lets face it, regardless of what is said, the club is on the open market waiting for bids) it could really unsettle our fantastic start to the season. If a transfer embargo is placed over us until any takeover is complete it could really hamper our progress, leaving us another 6 months without a striker.

I’ll finish with a harrowing thought; we could end up with somebody worse than Ashley!

NUFCBlog Author: Mick toons Mick toons is a proud nufc fan hailing from Durham. He now lives in Yorkshire with another group of hard done by fans... Leeds United Mick toons has written 13 articles on this blog.

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65 Responses

  1. i dont think that i could stand the trauma. Better the devil you know….. – aye – even Ashley.

    Oil money sickens me completely. I feel that its abuse when there are so many poor and starving in the world

  3. “I’ll finish with a harrowing thought; we could end up with somebody worse than Ashley!”

    On the optimistic side, Saddam Hussein, Uday Hussein and Usama bin Laden are all dead now, and I don’t think that Kim Jong Il will be interested either Mick.

    On the pessimstic side, I really don’t think that Ashley will be selling anytime soon, especially so now that dissent has been largely crushed, the footballer farm is up and running and the Sports Directification of the club can continue apace.

  4. tattyheed says:
    October 3, 2011 at 3:03 pm

    “Oil money sickens me completely. I feel that its abuse when there are so many poor and starving in the world”

    tattyheed, It’s more the migrant worker situation in places such as KSA and UAE that sickens me. Not the European and US ones who are treated well, but the ones from places such as Bangladesh, Palestine etc whose passports are stolen before they are forced into what is almost slavery. U.A.E. is the human trafficking capital of the world. Despite all their riches, I would hate to be a Man City fan.

  5. What goes on on the pitch is more likely to attract a buyer than most other stuff.
    Though, contentment in the stands will probably help too.
    There are experiments going on in football right now on account of manc et al. Other things will be tried out.
    Look at blackburn, birmingham, portsmouth & their great buy-outs.
    It doesn’t bode well in the current financial climate.
    It would have to be someone with a fat pair.

    i concur with worky that i don’t see ashley selling any time soon. I’ve held that view for quite some time now, even when he put us up for sale, & i don’t see that changing.

    Forget owners/chairmen, it’s the football that counts.
    if we can carry on doing what we’re doing the buy-out gods may look favourable on us.

  6. Keep the club in not only British but English ownership, with an English manager – we’ll be unique. It won’t last but we’ve never followed fashion, unless its tacky tracksuits and cheap trainers. Definitely better the devil you know, Mike Ashley may be many things but if he can stick out a couple of more years he may well be lauded on Tyneside.

  7. The changes that are being implemented now will only come to fruition in due course.
    It may suck, maybe it’ll be the making of this club, who knows?
    But if you chop & change constantly, as has been Newcastle’s way for many a decade, no good will ever come of it.
    The most important piece of the puzzle could be when the new fifa rules bite in a year or two.

  12. Hmmm! interesting question.
    Of course at present we have no idea if in fact Ashley wants to sell?

    Looking at whats going on, i would guess he has discovered a business plan that is similar too and based upon the “Powerball” system used by a number of US baseball clubs.

    Which i won’t get into, only to mention the current Liverpool owners, “The Fenway Group” use this system for both the “Boston Red Sox” and their football counterparts Liverpool.
    Roughly speaking it’s a system of evaluating players, through statistics.

    IMO Ashley believes he can both make a profit from NUFC as well as use it as an adjunct to Sports Direct.
    I also believe he wants his money back and is going nowhere until he succeeds in getting it.

    The fact the club is carrying a large debt, makes it less attractive to prospective buyers, in which case we will have to wait until Ashley pays himself off.
    There would be then, a more attractive deal for any interested buyer, low wage level, good attendance, no debt and if run well a profit each season.

    The negatives, not a great earner outside of attendance, small catchment area, almost 300 miles from London, which means the club will always have to punch above it’s weight, will have the odd flashes of success but will never be a constant top four team, for obvious reasons.

    Yeah, if we were bought by some Russian oligarch, or Middle East oil rich whatever, we could compete with the best, but face it what are the chances ?

    Soh ! for the time being, as Workey stated, “better the devil we know” !

  13. Woops sorry, it was Tattyheed who mentioned “Better the devil you know” not “Woikey”

  14. chuck isn’t that ‘moneyball’ as a powerball is one of those extremely bouncy balls i used to buy as a kid.

    You talk as if no one outside of Newcastle supports the Toon mate, not true!
    We have fans all over the world, a growing number dans La France as we speak.
    ;)

  15. As you say: we don’t know what he’s thinking about.
    But then you state profit as a motivator for him, again, we don’t know that to be true as not many clubs are profitable are they?

  16. CLiNT FLiCK says:
    October 3, 2011 at 5:17 pm

    “chuck isn’t that ‘moneyball’ as a powerball is one of those extremely bouncy balls i used to buy as a kid.”

    I thought it was something to do with the National Lottery Clint.

  17. If all we’re looking for is say £20M then that will buy us sufficient talent for us to have a punt at 7th place – which is progress indeed.
    Maybe even higher….
    Spurs have Parker, Modric, Van de Vaart and Defoe
    Like for like, we’d have Tiote, Cabaye, Ben Arfa and someone much better than Demba Ba and Best. there’s not much between these two sides on paper. Although I personally feel modric is the best attacking midfielder in PL.
    Liverpool have £55M worth of talent up front as well as Gerrard and Adam in midfield – so we are someway off them I suggest.
    Arsenal _ I just cant reckon. I cant work out how good they are right now. .
    Villa have Agbon, Bent, up front.

    I put us ahead of Villa and perhaps Arsenal which makes our next game very interesting indeed.

    1,2,3 – pick from ManU, ManC, chelsea,
    4,5 Liverpool, Spurs
    6,7, 8 tween arsenal, Villa and NUFC.

    right now, we are better than the rest on paper – methinks. But that as we know doesna guarantee results.

    Let’s say Ashley sold NUFC. We’d need another £30M on top of the £20M I suggest to compete with Liverpool. and another £50M to take on chelsea etc.

    I divvnt want any prima donnas tho.

  18. Plus,
    if someone ‘bought’ the clubs debt it would be gone & would be part of the price.
    £300m for a top 4 club, bargain!

    :)

  19. Clint
    CLINT
    Don’t get defensive pal, i happen to be one of those fans well outside of Newcastle.
    What i mean is we (due to a lack of success) do not have the w/wide. fan base of say a Liverpool or Man. U.etc.
    If you don’t believe it, look at their profit margins, even though we have an overall attendance superiority over Liverpool, their earnings are much higher, due to a greater overall fan base.

    Are you shi**ing me, you question whether profit is a motivating factor for Ashley…..ha ha ha !
    C’mon Clint !

  20. Mick,

    Why would you want to cause mayhem?

    You might not like Llambias and Ashley but beware of what you wish for as there maybe more Indian chicken farmers out there.

    There is a five year plan at the club which appears to be working if recent results, new players and new facilities are to go by.

  21. Kamar, to be fair I’ve aired my views on Ashley previously, I think overall he’s good for the club

  22. CLINT
    I called them superballs (but that could be the fact I’m very, very old!! Or maybe its just a hard weekend on the booze)
    I’m living proof that we’re attractive outside of the Toon, being born in Belfast.
    I agree Ashley is going no where until he gets whatever money “he feels” he is owed.
    Anyway, isnt this international break a massive pain the bum!!!
    How things can change in a week or two!

  23. Fair enough Mick.

    I might be one of the few on here who have respect for Ashley for what he is trying to do for our club.

    I have been in a company that had to be turned around otherwise it would have gone belly-up. It was terrible changing the company and the implications on the staff but the company survived and prospered.

    Whilst I recognise that Newcastle is not like the company I worked for but Newcastle was an organisation that couldn’t survive the way Shepherd was running it. It required a major overhaul.

    I think overall, like you, he’s good for the club.

  24. Well reasoned and stated Chuck. That’s basically my take on it as well, but you articulated it better than I would have done.

  25. Woikey

    I’m sure you know the difference between powerball, moneyball and bouncy balls.

    Were Ashley to follow the general, principals of the moneyball system, i could live with that.
    Sure it was originally a system derived by the “Oakland A’s” in order to compete with the wealthier clubs, basically a system that created competitive teams for a fraction of the cost of the bigger sides, by rating players with a complicated set of individual statistics.

    Of course most teams now use the system, which has lost it’s original purpose, to create a competitive side for a lot less money.

    Now they pay the going price, but it has become an essential aid in putting a successful side together,

    Just look at the money spent by Liverpool, though it may be working , as they spent as much if not more previously for players and won nowt.
    At least this side looks competitive.

    Actually, i think Ashley is using a combination of stat charts and the old retailing adage, buy cheap, sell at a profit.
    If it works, what the hell !

  26. chuck,
    i hear what you’re saying mate.
    All i said was ‘we don’t know’ what he thinks & anyway he’s actually said he didn’t buy into it for profit. One of the few things he’s actually quoted as saying.

    Belfast,
    it’s a royal pain in the ass, non football week.
    :)

  27. chuck,
    “The negatives, not a great earner outside of attendance, small catchment area, almost 300 miles from London, which means the club will always have to punch above it’s weight, will have the odd flashes of success but will never be a constant top four team, for obvious reasons”.

    You didn’t mention world wide catchment area mate.

  28. chuck says:
    October 3, 2011 at 6:27 pm

    “Woikey

    I’m sure you know the difference between powerball, moneyball and bouncy balls…

    Actually, i think Ashley is using a combination of stat charts and the old retailing adage, buy cheap, sell at a profit.
    If it works, what the hell !”

    Chuck, what about about Golden Balls?

    Seriously, what works in football, as in most fields, is investing in a good manager, and possibly a little patience without huge resources.

    Porto aren’t a bigger club than Newcastle yet they have won the Champion’s League and UEFA cup in very recent times. Difference? managers like Jose Mourinho and possibly AVB

    Nottingham Forest are a smaller club than Newcastle yet they won the European Cup twice in succession. Difference? Peter Taylor and Brian Clough.

    Liverpool shouldn’t really be a bigger club than Newcastle in terms of fans and such. But, thanks to managers like Bill Shankly and Bob Paisley, they have won 5 European Cups / Champion’s Leagues etc, and they are.

    Ajax aren’t necessarily a bigger club than Newcastle, but thanks to managers like Rinus Michels, Johan Cruyff and Van Gaal, they won the European Cup three times in succession and four times in total.

    Manchester United couldn’t win the League when alex Ferguson took over and so on and so on and so on…

  29. Just to clear this up:

    “Moneyball” is a book by Michael Lewis about stats in baseball and the Oakland A’s general manager, Billy Bean. The Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein used similar statistical analysis of players and won a couple of World Series.

    “Powerball” is a multi-state lottery.

    I actually think John Henry saw that there was a good deal to be had at Liverpool because Hicks and Gillett were hated and under financial pressure. This and the sale price they got for Torres allowed them to put quite a bit of money into the club.

  30. On Chucks other points:

    Newcastle actually has quite a large catchment area and is a one city team. Sunderland and Boro offer little competition for fans. With a successful team we would get most of the fans from the Scottish Borders to the Yorkshire Borders.

    A flight to Heathrow is an hour and there are many each day.

    Chuck, I don’t know why you have to take such a negative attitude in everything that you write. Is it a wind up, or just your nature?

  32. GS,
    but you’re right, ‘The great north’ Scottish borders to North Yorks is our catchment area, & over to Cumbria.
    & there are a lot of people there.

  33. Thanks Clint, I just wanted to know that Chuck really is a fan. He does raise decent points, but usually only paints part of the picture.

  35. No just like a baseball ump, i call em like i see em !
    Look even though Newcastle is a one city team, there are three major teams within a twenty odd mile radius, Thats Sunderland, which is what? twelve miles away ? and of course Middlesboro, you cant count that as NUFC territory.
    So GS thats just bullshit!
    The actual city of Newcastle itself, has a tiny population and the suburbs are not exactly high density, sure there are surrounding towns (old market towns in general)and what were once mining villages, but it really does’nt compare in size to many English cities in population density.
    As for overseas fans, mostly ex pat Geordies and the odd fan who likes them for whatever reason.
    Face it, look at where NUFC’s earnings come from, attendance, tv and a few shirts, then compare that to teams normally in the top five or six, c’mon, face facts, is what it is.

    Clint
    Theres probably more sheep there than people !

  36. Clint
    Only slightly cynical ?
    You are too kind !
    Hey ! it’s Amstel time, gotta get my ass outta here .

  37. chuck says:
    October 3, 2011 at 8:55 pm

    “The actual city of Newcastle itself, has a tiny population and the suburbs are not exactly high density,”

    Newcassel approx 250,000, Gatesheed approx 200,000, the birthplace of the Geordie elite such as myself and Alan Shearer, approx 40,000. Whole shooting match in the general urban area, gannin’ on for a million Chuck.

  38. Aye,
    a million & that’s just Newcastle.
    chuck seems to think all mackems & smoggies are loyal to their local team, not true.
    Then there’s all the county Durham towns, mostly Toon.
    I reckon you’re just alittle outta touch with the groundswell of support around the region mate.
    I have friends down here in the ‘big bad’ from all over the shop supporting the Toon.
    Not just north-easterners, it never ceases to amaze me really.

  39. The reach of Sunderland and ‘Boro extend mainly to their city limits.

    TV, internet and cheap airfares make the North East not as isolated as it once was.

    Most teams make most of their money from TV, attendance and shirts. That is why Champions League is so important.

    We have a chance to be like Ajax, Valencia or Schalke. But you are right, we will never be Man U., Barca or Bayern who by the way have many competing teams in their catchment area but have the advantage of history and good management as well as sweet TV deals (as well as a much larger catchment area).

  40. Oh, and speaking of Barca. With all of their advantages and a great team, they are still $billion in debt.

  41. Kamar says:
    October 3, 2011 at 9:04 pm

    “So Worky, everything Pardew says has to be correct and there will be no excuse if things turn out differently even in circumstances for which it is beyond his control.”

    I much preferred Hughton’s approach Kamar. I was watching an interview with him the other day. They were trying to draw him in about Carsten Yeung, money laundering, court cases, having virtually his whole squad ripped from under him etc etc. To use Eric Cantona’s analogy, the seagulls got no fish whatsoever.

  42. GS says:
    October 3, 2011 at 9:31 pm

    “Oh, and speaking of Barca. With all of their advantages and a great team, they are still $billion in debt.”

    Barcelona’s debt is around £400 million and falling GS, which would be around $600 million and a bit, and much lower than Manchester United’s was at it’s peak.

    Debt for clubs such as Barcelona and Manchester United can be somewhat different to debt with clubs like Newcastle United because they win so many trophies and they have such a great brand.

    I’m quite old fashioned, however debt isn’t always regarded as being a bad thing in business anyway, though it certainly can be, as it has been for us, and still can be as the bulk of ours is repayable on demand to a certain Mr MJW Ashley. However there are lots of other factors too which make some kinds of debt different to others.

  43. the difference being that they’ll (manusa,barca etc.) find skanky ways round it & get away with it.

  44. Worky:

    I thought it was 600MM Euros, but I am sure you are right. I understand the brand thing but even then debt can be trouble. You just have to look at the banks to see how this can spiral out of control. They are supposed to know about this stuff as well.

    By the way, without Ferguson ManUSA would have been in big trouble. The Glazers borrowed at very high interest rates just before the finncial crisis and a lot of their notes were refinanced just before the latest crisis. It was Ferguson’s football genius and financial acumen that saved them, plus a bit of luck.

    I am a Financial Planner so I look at this sort of stuff.
    The opposite happened to Valencia in terms of luck. They built a new 60,000 seater stadium with the plan of making a mint on selling the land on their old stadium to pay for it. The property slump in Spain means there are no buyers and they have been forced to sell Villa, Silva and Mata to balance the books.

    I can’t remember which, but Madrid or Milan had to sell their training ground to pay off debt and there are stories of the Spanish government paying for Madrid’s debts.

  45. Worky:

    one more thing is that a lot of the ManUSA debt was with what is known as Paid-in-kind notes where the interest is accrued. When they become due there is a trigger for a higher interest rate which I think was something like 16%.

    This is why the Glazers were lucky, because they paid a lot of these off last year and if they hadn’t they would be well and truly f***** now.

    Sorry if this is boring, but you seem to follow this type of thing.

  47. We are a very good deal at the market, and a huge upside since we havent won anything. A rich owner with City ambitions could be a hero. Anyway, everything is better than fat Mike. The worst owner in the history of football.

  48. GS says:
    October 3, 2011 at 10:34 pm

    “Worky:

    I thought it was 600MM Euros, but I am sure you are right”

    I’m a Cruyffhead and a fan of the very beautiful game, so I still follow Barcelona’s goings on quite alot. Funnily enough though, Valencia was my Spanish team as I used to stay with a couple of girls there and go to the matches at the Mestalla when Rafa the Gaffer was in charge. It’s probably my favourite stadium because it’s very steep and you get such a great view from everywhere. I hope the new one’s like that otherwise it would be a great shame. Spanish stadia in general are more like that though in my experience.

    I’ve heard that the new Valencia stadium was around 75,000, about the same as Old Trafford, though I’m not 100% about that one.

    Back to Barcelona, below is their Vice President for Finance on the debt. It says 483 million euros in there as of June this year which were probably the same as the figures I was referring to roughly in Sterling.

    http://www.catalannewsagency.com/news/sports/debt-reduction-essential-states-fc-barcelona%E2%80%99s-financial-vice-president

    On the subject of Manchester United, have you been following the Glazers’ flotation of 25% on the Singapore Exchange?

  50. Just to play advocate here…. But just say that we do get the finances under control (which it looks as though is slowly happening), why on earth would Ashley sell?

    He’d have a team that runs itself with no financial input from him and it would give him somewhere to market his SD stuff to a worldwide audience.

    Love, like, hate him or whatever, but I honestly believe that the only circumstance he will sell is if he gets a silly money bid that is way way above both market value and his investment.

  52. toonsy,
    firstly: alreet mate?
    secondly: that would be true to form i.e. an offer too silly to turn down (carroll).

    ;)

  53. CLiNT FLiCK says:
    October 3, 2011 at 11:12 pm

    “worky,
    are you aware of Vic Buckingham?”

    Aye, Vic Buckingham. Played for Tottingham, managed Ajax twice in the sixties, discovered God there when he was a bairn.

  54. Valencia is 75k? I thought it was 65k but was going conservative as I had overestimated the Barca debt. It is probably bad to say considering what I do for a living, but I tend to look at the big picture and only get into details if I am buying or selling something.

    I know about the Singapore deal but didn’t follow it. Probably lucky timing for the Glazers again. But then again, how many times can I call it lucky when in fact they may just be smart.

  58. CLiNT FLiCK says:
    October 3, 2011 at 11:25 pm

    “worky,
    aye, that’s the fella.
    An originator!”

    He was also the first of the great ex Ajax dynasty at Barcelona, though like Michels, he was only there for around 2 years.

    Was allegedly involved in a bit of a betting scandal here, something to do with an Ipswich game or something like that, though nothing was ever proven.

  59. Aye,
    it coulda been english footie, but no, we had to have staid stiff upper lippedness.
    How sad!

    :)

  60. This sort of thing cannot go on forever, can it? None of the clubs are making any money.

    What I see is:

    1. a rich man’s play thing or a way to get into the mainstream for thieves – Qatar/Mansour/Abramovich.

    2. a game of musical chairs where the bet is that someone will pay more before the music stops – Glasers/QPR.

    3. a realisation that the music will stop soon, so be prepared – Arsenal/Newcastle now but not 3 years ago.

    4. I haven’t got a clue what they are up to – Ellis Short, Randy Lerner, Venckys.

    5. Chancers – West Ham, etc.

    6. Liverpool – “moneyball” (or Powerball to Chuck) economics.

    My opinion is that NUFC are set up well to survive and maybe even thrive because Ashley is a fat, opportunistic, greedy bastad.

  61. toonsy says:
    October 3, 2011 at 11:12 pm

    “Just to play advocate here…. But just say that we do get the finances under control (which it looks as though is slowly happening), why on earth would Ashley sell?
    …
    Love, like, hate him or whatever, but I honestly believe that the only circumstance he will sell is if he gets a silly money bid that is way way above both market value and his investment.”

    I more or less agree there Toonsy. I do tend to believe SJH on the Far East promotional vehicle when I look at those 60odd Sports Direct signs!

    As you are a fellow receiver of the annual accounts, you will also know that we were actually more in debt at the time of the last accounts than we were when Ashley took over, though of course, there are many other aspects to that.

  62. I’m late to join the party but anyway….

    From a non english fan from Malaysia, I somehow think that Ashley isnt half bad. True he’s ugly in his pants dancing at a bar, he’s made humongous PR blunders with Managers, players, the ugly ass sports direct signs on SJP etc but the stability is slowly but surely coming. Not only talking about the recent 7 games but overall. (Lets face it we are gonna lose someday….or are we). But we are getting in solid players for good prices and Pardew is getting them to play interesting football.

    I think Ashley’s biggest mistake was when he first took over and made himself out to be a people’s chairman which he clearly isnt.

    Right now i would rather stick with Ashley and see where he takes us in next 3 years (5 year plan remember) than to up sticks and go with an unknown quantity.

    I’ve been supporting for the last 20 years so what’s another 3 years.

  63. workyticket says:

    “As you are a fellow receiver of the annual accounts, you will also know that we were actually more in debt at the time of the last accounts than we were when Ashley took over, though of course, there are many other aspects to that”

    Like the strangely escalating Fatman loan that seems to change almost on a daily basis :) Where does it stand now £170m ?

  65. Owning football clubs is murky murky business. At least we know who our manager is and know where he stands. I have always felt we had a lot going for use as a club which could catch the eye of some big money sugar daddy. But, for every Sheik Mansour, their are dozens of owners like those who took Pompey down.