Where will Newcastle United finish this season?

Posted on January 19th, 2011 | 73 Comments |

League Table, 19.01.2011
Threatening the top 10 already!
At the start of the season, finishing in 17th place was considered enough of a target for Newcastle this season. It is now clear, however, that we can aim a little higher than that..

Alan Pardew recently claimed that he wanted to eventually threaten the top ten, but I’m not too sure we’ll be all that far away from it this season.

We would surely have to suffer an almighty collapse of form or an unprecedented number of injuries (even for Newcastle) to consider a 17th place finish anything but disappointing.

I thought I’d take a look at the games we have left and try to estimate how many points we’ll end up with. Don’t trust my estimates though. I once ‘estimated’ that a Christmas tree I saw at a garden centre would fit in my house. It did, but only after I chopped 4ft off the top and 2ft off the diameter. It was more of a Christmas bush by the time I finished.

Nevertheless, I’ll have a crack. We have 16 games left to play – 8 at home and 8 away – and the following are my guesstimates as to how those games will go on a month by month basis:

January

Spurs (H) … draw

1 point from 3 for the remainder of the month.

February

Fulham (A) … draw
Arsenal (H) … lose
Blackburn (A) … lose
Birmingham (A) … win
Bolton (H) … win

7 points from 15 for the month.

March

Everton (H) … draw
Stoke (A) … lose

1 point from 6 for the month.

April

Wolves (H) … win
Villa (A) … win
Man U (H) … lose
Blackpool (A) … draw
Liverpool (A) … lose

7 points from 15 for the month.

May

Birmingham (H) … win
Chelsea (A) … lose
West Brom (H) … win

6 points from 9 for the month.

Total: 22 points from 48, which will give us 51 points and thus a typical finishing position (going by previous Premier League points v position estimates) of 8th – 11th.

Purely a guess of course and I think we stand a greater chance of taking more points than that than we do of taking less because I’ve erred on the pessimistic side.

So what do you think? Any advance on 51 points?

NUFCBlog Author: Hugh de Payen I'm a baby-boomer of the punk rock persuasion, currently exiled in Somerset for crimes committed in a previous life where locals keep trying to poison me with something called 'scrumpy'. Hates sprouts, coat-hangers, Cilla Black, ornaments, Steven Seagull movies and 50 Cent (he's not worth 10). Hugh de Payen has written 634 articles on this blog.

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73 Responses

  1. home form is the key of course if can get maximum from those games and have a good away form then we should be good

  2. Between 9th and 12th, it’s that tight it really is hard to call but it’s just a shame we threw so many points away in winnable games earlier in the season.

  3. I’ll be happy as long as we’re not relegated. I still look at this season as the start of a building exercise, so I won’t be disappointed if we’re not challenging for Europe.

    Realistically, it’s not ridiculous to think that we’ll finish in the top half of the table. We have a good squad that I do think will be added to in the next week or so, and we have some excellent players coming back from injury that haven’t yet been able to help out in what has been an unexpectedly successful season so far.

    I’ll say 8th or 9th for the end of the season, but in truth, I’ll be happy with anything above 18th.

  4. Agreed!
    Although a signing or two and the return of Gosling and Ben Arfa(depending on their form of course)could see us in 6th position 58 pts.

  6. “I’ll be happy as long as we’re not relegated” sums it up perfectly

    as usual people talking about europe etc are just getting carried away. however the start of the season expectations given to CH was 17th or higher and look where it got him!

  9. I reckon about 8th-12th, depending on other teams’ results. Also depends on who other teams still have to play.

  10. Dont forget pre-season aspirations, 17th position would have been acceptable, however I think optimism is in the air.

  13. Hey…i guess we can finish anywhere between 6th to 10 th…i dont think we will go below that…we do hav a better starting 11 when compared to the other teams competing for that squad…if we can get some back up players ,we can surely finish 6 th….

  14. if only we picked up home points earlier in season we would be in top 4 now!!
    happy to finish 12th or better – then to bomb on next season with a couple (3 max) quality signings to improve squad / team!!
    HWTL !!!!!!!

  15. Guessed different results but came to 51 points as well. I think everyone is thinking along the same lines which is awesome, ie, survival is what we want, but dreaming of a higher finish isnt to outrageous.

    I think we aren’t giving Pardew enough credit also, he really has had a good start as manager, 10 points from 6 games is top stuff (not thinking about Stevenage).
    Also I think he is working well with the defence:
    Liverpool goal was a mistake,
    2 of the Man City goals were from mistakes
    Tottenham; Perch and Simpson vs Lennon and Bale, letting in 2 goals pretty alright by that perspective! And they were both counter attacks.
    2 clean sheets against wigan and west ham
    1 lapse in concentration against sunderland

  16. wont become optimistic until we get past the 40 point mark.
    Can see us getting bogged down in the 30’s until April.

  17. I reckon, with a couple of good buys/loans

    anywhere between 45-60 points is easily possible.

    51 points would be nice to wind up the unwashed.

  18. TBH,
    i’m not really bothered so long as we survive comfortably.
    Just like i wasn’t bothered about either cup last season or this.
    I’ll be more chowed next season, providing we stay up well.
    Howay the lads!

  19. I’m happy if we can keep three teams behind us. I think one of them will be West Ham, another one is probably Wolves, the third relegee could be anyone of the current bottom ten. Although I expect better from Pool, Everton and Villa, and I can see them passing us in the table. Blackpool may dip in form.

    Bentley could be an impact player for Brum, but they’ve lost Dann for rest of the season. Wigan will continue to struggle if they lose Insomnia. Week and a half left of the transfer window, and I do expect the likes of Fulham and Blackburn to make some reasonable acquisitions.

    Anyways, its narrow margins. We have to start beating those teams around us, and it will be an exciting spring. We’re four wins off that infamous 40 point mark (and safety), but I reckon us to finnish 10-12th with around 50 points when it comes to May.

    Who’s coming in for Routs?

  20. I run my forecast by comparing our results against the same sides the season we got relegated. For the 3 teams (Blackpool,Wolves,Birmingham) that werent in the PL last term I have compare their results with the results of the 3 teams (Boro, Portsmouth, Hull) that are no longer in the PL. So far we have netted 13 more points against the same opposition as we did last season, so even if we only match the results from that season in our remaining matches we will finish with 47 points , so I think 51 and beyond is probably very acheivable

  21. just read newsnow – there’s a headline saying that Bayern Munich have targetted Jose.
    nearly s**t myself until i read the article – they are planning to get him on the cheap – they say 4-5m euros!!!!!!!!!
    HA HA HA HA HA HA – that wouldnt buy his right leg (and he only uses that to prop him up) :)

  22. How about a straight swap for Schweinsteiger, Ribery and Van Bommell although that could bu**er up the wages structure. :)

  23. Tatty – Ashley’s never sold an in-form player that we needed, and has fended off pretty decent interest in the past, even for players we can’t really afford. Unless Jose wants out (hopefully not the case) he’ll be staying around.

  24. oh god no!i hope bayern don’t go after jose.that would be scary as i can’t imagine jose would turn down a deal like that.if he does go we should eek out as much as possible from the germans.a player plus cash hopefully.
    i think we should try and get a young quality keeper.it’s not as if i have anything against our current bunch except that harper is getting on in age but i would like to see someone like sergio romero of az alkmaar.i think he would be good as well as coming on the cheap.

  26. Back on thread: I think AP’s ‘target’ is a massive cop-out: what does ‘threaten’ mean? And when?

    Our minimum has to be 17th as we all know, we should be targeting 10th with optimistic hopes of tweaking that up to 7th if other results go our way.

    Right now, I’m relishing the prospect of Scumberland imploding. I’d love to see them plummet into the bottom 3, thrash around in a rellie fight, and finish 17th on goal difference. Maximum stress and humiliation, but we still get derby games next season.

    Schadenfreud? Moi?

  27. Whumpie, i hope to god you are right.i really think jose is one of the best and underrated left backs in europe much like our other previously unheard of star player-tiote!

  29. Sorry but that was only a quick dip into the blog as I have sh!tloads to do today.

    Still don’t understand the outing of Routledge as I see him as a player who can do a really good job for us. With no real replacement in place or in view.

    51 points should be a doddle on currnt form and I would expect a top ten finish. I also thought that Sunderchavland would possibly manage to edge in front of us but not now they are losing bent. :)

  30. Arka: relax, man! It’s 99% likely to be made up paper-selling, and even if it were true, Jose won’t want to go, and Ashley’s not one to push a key player to the door. Don’t even react to this B.S. – it’s what happens when you have good players, and it comes to nowt.

  31. I remember 2/3 yrs ago everyone was hating on Enrique……anyone with half a football mind knew he could play

  33. Wimbledon Mag says:
    January 19, 2011 at 2:07 pm

    “This stats site predicts we’ll be 9th with 50 points.”

    Wimbledon Mag, That’s more or less what I predicted when some of us on the ‘blog were interviewed by ESPN. That was when Hughton was manager though.

  34. That stats site has us behind the scum at the end of the season. Not going to happen. Frankly I’d rather be 12th with them 13th than 9th with them 8th!

    Anyone else of the same sad, bitter mind as me on that?

  36. how about someone like nesta or pirlo on a free?i know they’re old as hell but it would be great!

  37. If Routledge goes without at least one replacement (need 2 IMO) then I think we’ll finish bottom half, as it’ll be a sign of incompetence at the top. If AP pulls a rabbit out of a hat (or at least someone who can run that fast) then 51 points is entirely realistic.
    With my rose-tinted specs on, I think the papers for Wayne to QPR won’t be signed until at least one replacement is in place.
    Surely nobody’s daft to do otherwise….?
    ….please….?

  38. arka says:
    January 19, 2011 at 2:09 pm

    “much like our other previously unheard of star player-tiote!”

    Didn’t you see him in the World Cup, Arka?

  40. Milner says:
    January 19, 2011 at 2:30 pm

    “Toon linked with old boy Mauro Camaronesi – Stuttgart are willing to release him…”

    He IS an old boy, Milner. He must be almost Sol’s kind of age?

  41. The Camaronesi and Enrique stories are non-starters, surely?

    Enrique for 4-5million Euros…3.5-4million pounds? Yeah, ok then :roll:

    Enrique should be Spain’s no.1, and it a total disgrace how Capdevilla gets in the team ahead of him.

  44. WORKY aye 34 m8,sure batty could flog him a couple crutchs like.

    “was” a v.good player mind

  45. Milner says:
    January 19, 2011 at 2:59 pm

    “Camaronesi is 34 – i think the term is “Veteran”.”

    Aye Milner, I thought he was mid thirties sort of age.

  46. Where are we going to finish ?
    Depends on who shows up each week, Jeckel or Hyde, just no consistency.
    Take a stab at around tenth to thirteenth, providing there are no major injuries and Tiote learns he`s not much help in the stands.

    Wondered why we moved Routledge, suspected we might be bringing in a new winger.
    Now it`s been revealed we are chasing SWP, a fragile player who has lost a step and is on big bucks.
    You know, I had hope for this side, we had started to rebuild and made some decent signings in Tiote, Ben Arfa and possibly Gosling.
    Had we signed either Larsson or Kranjcar, that would have improved the side, but SWP is IMO a step backward and exactly who is it that wants him ?
    Pardew I suspect, looks like his first move(if we sign him)could be a blunder, c`mon i would just as soon see Routledge play as SWP
    Aaaaagghhhh !!!

  47. icedog says:
    January 19, 2011 at 3:02 pm

    “WORKY aye 34 m8,sure batty could flog him a couple crutchs like.”

    I divven’t knaa why we’re gannin’ on about 34 being “old” mind, Ice. If he needs crutches, I need one of those electric scooters!

  50. chuck says:
    January 19, 2011 at 3:04 pm

    “Where are we going to finish ?
    Depends on who shows up each week, Jeckel or Hyde, just no consistency.”

    Chuck, I know I bang on about this quite alot, but that’s normal for a team in our state of development after relegation, player exodus, rebuild of the team, promotion again etc. We will sometimes show glimpses of what we can be eventually, then stutter a bit, then become gradually more consistent. Mind, I don’t know which way we’ll go now with flash Harry at the helm.

  51. Looking at remaining fixtures i’d say 18 points.

    Bolton, Everton, Wolves, Birmingham, West Brom victories

    Spurs, Fulham, Villa Draws

    And lose the rest.

  52. icedog says:
    January 19, 2011 at 3:10 pm

    “WORKY come join the club”

    Ice, some of those oldies on scooters are radgies now they make those ‘GT’ models. I’ve nearly been run over a few times now.

  53. I keep on reading 3pts against Bolton is a gimme!? We were totally mullered by them. The only team since the opening game at old trafford to have played us off the park, smarter on the ball and hungrier off it. I wish I shared your confidence regards that fixture.

  54. BOATER nee game is a gimme in epl,but i will say bolton have peaked and have been up there for a while,but they will have a dip like all teams,lets hope it starts when we play them :)

  56. toonsy says:
    January 19, 2011 at 3:39 pm

    “I’m starting to believe we can win the damn thing…..”

    Still a long way to go for an impatient lot like us, Toonsy.

  57. RE: Bolton, we can ave ’em, Taylor looking a bit old and elmander going off boil…

    RE: SWP is a gash target, i think we all agree, but if it was purely on loan for rest of season, i’d be happier than having Routledge there – his England caps have got to count for something

    Nicely linking these two points, I’d prefer us to sign Bolton’s little chinese fella, but no idea if they’d want to sell – he might like the eat all u can chinese buffet near the ground tho…

  58. Milner says:
    January 19, 2011 at 3:49 pm

    “Nicely linking these two points, I’d prefer us to sign Bolton’s little chinese fella”

    Korean fella, Milner. Chung Yong?

  60. Completly off topic.It’s funny listening to Mrs.Doubtfire moaning about villa tapping up bent.This is the same manager who approached Cattermole to go to sundrland with him while the where both employed by Wigan.He also tapped up Bramble,and also tried to take Kirkland,insomnia and their full back with him.Not only as Bruce got an ugly face he has at least two of them the hypocritical S**tbag.

  61. Mick G…..has Doubtfire not also walked out on a club or too himself then tries to preach loyalty :roll:

    Ice@59… what a knob, when ya have everything you value nothing ;-)

  62. Worky, is that Chung Yong the famous Chung Yong, Chung Yong, Chung Yong, Chung Yong, Chung Yong tiddle ay poo?

  63. Cameronesi, would be a bad signing not only is he slowing down considrably, he is a fouling machine and with our refs would be off more than Tiote but with none of his assets to compensate. If we were to try for an oldie defender then I wouldn’t mind Lahm.

    Theres quite a few Eastern Asians worth a shout right across Europe, although names don’t readily spring to my tired old brain at the mo. I would have thought a far eastern scout would earn his corn just finding another Park or Lee (any of them).

  64. Why have we strarted letting the opposition know our team?ie Carroll out Guthrie in. Whats wrong with letting them know when they get the team sheet an hour before kick off?

  66. lesh says:

    “Worky, is that Chung Yong the famous Chung Yong, Chung Yong, Chung Yong, Chung Yong, Chung Yong tiddle ay poo?”

    Dont give up your day job just yet Lesh :)

    For those of our younger viewers who might think lesh is off his trolly………… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nebe1zuEtbc It was funny at the time I suppose ?

  67. cunning plan mmmmm let me think about that one.Maybe someone likes the sound of their own voice.I don’t think Mr.Pardew can hold on to his own piss.

  69. I’ll be happy with anything above 42 points as that’ll prob guarantee survival, consistency is something every team in the prem is struggling for apart from west ham who are consistently poor

  70. 4411 says:
    January 19, 2011 at 7:54 pm

    “I’ll be happy with anything above 42 points”

    4411, Of course, that was a record with poor old Glen at West Ham. However I do have a feeling that it will be a bit like that this year.

  71. workyticket says:

    “4411, Of course, that was a record with poor old Glen at West Ham. However I do have a feeling that it will be a bit like that this year”

    First time I’ve seen anyone say that this year might be different. Normally, at this time of the season there is one, maybe two definite candidates like Derby or the Makems who cant buy wins and have that smell of brown stuff about them and generally have a total of points in single figures at Christmas.

    However its not the bottom team that counts. The average points total of the team finishing 18th in the EPL during the past ten years is 35. However we all know about Wet Spams famous or should that be infamous total of 42 points in 2003 which wasnt good enough to keep them up as Bolton, in 17th, managed 44.

    So this season IMO 40 points wont GUARANTEE safety so we’ll probably have to win at least another 16 points to confirm Premiership status. Although the 18th team may go down with less than 45 points they’ll probably amass at least 40 just to make it interesting :(

  73. Unless Villa turn into what we were two seasons ago, I can’t see us picking up an away win against them.

    Draw at best .. esp. since safety might be a sure thing by then and the boys may already be planing for the summer break.

    Maybe 12-15 from the remaining games.

    A draw against Spurs would be good.